Applied and Computational Mathematics Seminar
Monday, April 17, 2017 - 14:00
1 hour (actually 50 minutes)
In this talk we discuss how to find probabilities of extreme events in stochastic differential equations. One approach to calculation would be to perform a large number of simulations and gather statistics, but an efficient alternative is to minimize Freidlin-Wentzell action. As a consequence of the analysis one also determines the most likely trajectory that gave rise to the extreme event. We apply this approach to stochastic systems whose deterministic behavior exhibit chaos (Lorenz and Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equations), comment on the observed behavior, and discuss.