Normal Mode Analysis for Drifter Data Assimilation to Improve Trajectory Predictions from Ocean Models
- Series
- Applied and Computational Mathematics Seminar
- Time
- Monday, October 19, 2009 - 13:00 for 1 hour (actually 50 minutes)
- Location
- Skiles 255
- Speaker
- Helga S. Huntley – University of Delaware
Biologists tracking crab larvae, engineers designing pollution mitigation strategies, and
climate scientists studying tracer transport in the oceans are among many who rely on
trajectory predictions from ocean models. State-of-the-art models have been shown to
produce reliable velocity forecasts for 48-72 hours, yet the predictability horizon for
trajectories and related Lagrangian quantities remains significantly shorter. We
investigate the potential for decreasing Lagrangian prediction errors by applying a
constrained normal mode analysis (NMA) to blend drifter observations with model velocity
fields. The properties of an unconstrained NMA and the effects of parameter choices are
discussed. The constrained NMA technique is initially presented in a perfect model
simulation, where the “true” velocity field is known and the resulting error can be
directly assessed. Finally, we will show results from a recent experiment in the East
Asia Sea, where real observations were assimilated into operational ocean model hindcasts.