Georgia Institute of Technology College of Sciences

Biologists tracking crab larvae, engineers designing pollution mitigation strategies, and climate scientists studying tracer transport in the oceans are among many who rely on trajectory predictions from ocean models. State-of-the-art models have been shown to produce reliable velocity forecasts for 48-72 hours, yet the predictability horizon for trajectories and related Lagrangian quantities remains significantly shorter. We investigate the potential for decreasing Lagrangian prediction errors by applying a constrained normal mode analysis (NMA) to blend drifter observations with model velocity fields. The properties of an unconstrained NMA and the effects of parameter choices are discussed. The constrained NMA technique is initially presented in a perfect model simulation, where the “true” velocity field is known and the resulting error can be directly assessed. Finally, we will show results from a recent experiment in the East Asia Sea, where real observations were assimilated into operational ocean model hindcasts.