Stochastic models for the transmission and establishment of HIV infection

Mathematical Biology Seminar
Wednesday, March 27, 2019 - 10:00am
1 hour (actually 50 minutes)
Skiles 005
UBC (visiting Emory)

The likelihood of HIV infection following risky contact is believed to be low. This suggests that the infection process is stochastic and governed by rare events. I will present mathematical branching process models of early infection and show how we have used them to gain insights into the duration of the undetectable phase of HIV infection, the likelihood of success of pre- and post-exposure prophylaxis, and the effects of prior infection with HSV-2. Although I will describe quite a bit of theory, I will try to keep giant and incomprehensible formulae to a minimum.