Host metapopulation, disease epidemiology and host evolution

Mathematical Biology Seminar
Wednesday, October 16, 2019 - 11:00am for 1 hour (actually 50 minutes)
Skiles 006
Jing Jiao – NIMBioS - University of Tennessee
Hector Banos

While most evolutionary studies of host-pathogen dynamics consider pathogen evolution alone or host-pathogen coevolution, for some diseases (e.g., White Nose syndrome in bats), there is evidence that hosts can sometimes evolve more rapidly than their pathogen. In this talk, we will discuss the spatial, temporal, and epidemiological factors may drive the evolutionary dynamics of the host population. We consider a simplified system of two host genotypes that trade off factors of disease robustness and spatial mobility or growth. For diseases that infect hosts for life, we find that migration and disease-driven mortality can have antagonistic effect on host densities when disease selection on hosts is low, but show synergy when selection is high. For diseases that allow hosts to recover with immunity, we explore the conditions under which the disease dies out, becomes endemic, or has periodic outbreaks, and show how these dynamics relate to the relative success of the robust and wild type hosts in the population over time. Overall, we will discuss how combinations of host spatial structure, demography, and epidemiology of infectious disease can significantly influence host evolution and disease prevalence. We will conclude with some profound implications for wildlife conservation and zoonotic disease control.