Maximizing insight with minimal (and erroneous) information: The case of COVID-19

Mathematical Biology Seminar
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 - 11:00am for 1 hour (actually 50 minutes)
Juan B. GutiĆ©rrez – University of Texas at Saint Antonio – juan.gutierrez3@utsa.edu
Afaf saaidi

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This talk presents novel approaches to old techniques to forecast COVID-19: (i) a modeling framework that takes into consideration asymptomatic carriers and government interventions, (ii) a method to rectify daily case counts reported in public databases, and (iii) a method to study socioeconomic factors and propagation of disinformation. In the case of (i), results were obtained with a comprehensive data set of hospitalizations and cases in the metropolitan area of San Antonio through collaboration with local and regional government agencies, a level of data seldom studied in a disaggregated manner. In the case of (ii), results were obtained with a simple approach to data rectification that has not been exploited in the literature, resulting in a non-autonomous system that opens avenues of mathematical exploration. In the case of (iii), this talk presents a methodology to study the effect of socioeconomic and demographic factors, including the phenomenon of disinformation and its effect in public health; currently there are few mathematical results in this important area.