A New Nonlinear Long Memory Volatility Process

Mathematical Finance/Financial Engineering Seminar
Tuesday, February 10, 2009 - 3:00pm for 1 hour (actually 50 minutes)
Skiles 269
Rehim Kilic – School of Economics, Georgia Tech
Christian Houdré
This paper introduces a new nonlinear long memory volatility process, denoted by Smooth Transition FIGARCH, or ST-FIGARCH, which is designed to account for both long memory and nonlinear dynamics in the conditional variance process. The nonlinearity is introduced via a logistic transition function which is characterized by a transition parameter and a variable. The model can capture smooth jumps in the altitude of the volatility clusters as well as asymmetric response to negative and positive shocks. A Monte Carlo study finds that the ST-FIGARCH model outperforms the standard FIGARCH model when nonlinearity is present, and performs at least as well without nonlinearity. Applications reported in the paper show both nonlinearity and long memory characterize the conditional volatility in exchange rate and stock returns and therefore presence of nonlinearity may not be the source of long memory found in the data.