Georgia Institute of Technology College of Sciences

In his thesis, Margulis computed the asymptotic growth rate for the number of closed geodesics of length less than R on a given closed hyperbolic surface and his argument has been emulated to many other settings. We examine the Teichmüller geodesic flow on the moduli space of a surface, or more generally any stratum of quadratic differentials in the cotangent bundle of moduli space. The flow is known to be mixing, but the spaces are not compact and the flow is not uniformly hyperbolic. We show that the random walk associated to the Teichmüller geodesic flow is biased toward the compact part of the stratum. We then use this to find asymptotic growth rate of for the number of closed loops in the stratum. (This is a joint work with Alex Eskin and Maryam Mirzakhani.)

Waterborne diseases cause over 3.5 million deaths annually, with cholera alone responsible for 3-5 million cases/year and over 100,000 deaths/year. Many waterborne diseases exhibit multiple characteristic timescales or pathways of infection, which can be modeled as direct and indirect transmission. A major public health issue for waterborne diseases involves understanding the modes of transmission in order to improve control and prevention strategies. One question of interest is: given data for an outbreak, can we determine the role and relative importance of direct vs. environmental/waterborne routes of transmission? We examine these issues by exploring the identifiability and parameter estimation of a differential equation model of waterborne disease transmission dynamics. We use a novel differential algebra approach together with several numerical approaches to examine the theoretical and practical identifiability of a waterborne disease model and establish if it is possible to determine the transmission rates from outbreak case data (i.e. whether the transmission rates are identifiable). Our results show that both direct and environmental transmission routes are identifiable, though they become practically unidentifiable with fast water dynamics. Adding measurements of pathogen shedding or water concentration can improve identifiability and allow more accurate estimation of waterborne transmission parameters, as well as the basic reproduction number. Parameter estimation for a recent outbreak in Angola suggests that both transmission routes are needed to explain the observed cholera dynamics. I will also discuss some ongoing applications to the current cholera outbreak in Haiti.

Tom Church, Jordan Ellenberg and I recently discovered that the i-th Betti number of the space of configurations of n points on any manifold is given by a polynomial in n. Similarly for the moduli space of n-pointed genus g curves. Similarly for the dimensions of various spaces of homogeneous polynomials arising in algebraic combinatorics. Why? What do these disparate examples have in common? The goal of this talk will be to answer this question by explaining a simple underlying structure shared by these (and many other) examples in algebra and topology.

We review various classifications of probability distributions based on their tail heaviness. Using a characterization of medium-tailed distributions we propose a test for testing the null hypothesis of medium-tail vs long- or short-tailed distributions. Some operating characteristics of the proposed test are discussed.